CAPITOLO 1. svendere il futuro
1. Sandra Postel, Pillar of Sand, W.W. Norton & Company, New York 1999, pp. 13-21.
2. Guy Gugliotta, “The Maya: Glory and Ruin”, National Geographic, agosto 2007; Jared Diamond, Collasso, Einaudi, Torino 2005; Postel, op. cit. nota 1, pp. 13-21; Joseph Tainter, The Collapse of Complex Societies, Cambridge, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge 1988.
3. U.N. Food e Agriculture Organization (FAO), “Soaring Food Prices: Facts, Perspectives, Impacts, and Actions Required” paper presentato alla High-Level Conference on World Food Security: the Challenges of Climate Change and Bioenergy, Roma 3-5 giugno 2008; le serie storiche dei prezzi di grano, frumento e soia sono dati del Chicago Board of Trade Futures Data ricavati da TFC Commodity Charts, “Grain & Oilseed Commodities Futures”, futures.tradingcharts.com/grains_oilseeds.html, visionato il 16 gennaio 2009; i prezzi correnti di grano, frumento e soia sono dati del Chicago Board of Trade Futures Data ricavati da CME Group, “Commodity Products”, dati pubblicati su www.cmegroup.com; prezzi del riso da Nathan Childs, Katherine Baldwin, Rice Outlook (Washington, DC: U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA), Economic Research Service (ERS), 11 giugno 2009), p. 26.
4. U.N. General Assembly, “United Nations Millennium Declaration”, General Assembly, 8 settembre 2000; FAO, “1.02 Billion People Hungry”, comunicato stampa (Roma: 19 giugno 2009).
5. U.N. Population Division, World Population Prospects: The 2008 Revision Population Database, esa.un.org/unpp, aggiornato all’11 marzo 2009.
6. USDA, Production, Supply and Distribution, www.fas.usda.gov/psdonline, aggiornato al 12 maggio 2009; U.N. Population Division, op. cit. nota 5.
7. Ward’s Automotive Group, World Motor Vehicle Data 2008 (Southfield, MI: 2008), pp. 239-42; USDA, op. cit. nota 6; F.O. Licht, “Too Much Too Soon? World Ethanol Production to Break Another Record in 2005”, World Ethanol and Biofuels Report, vol. 3, n. 20 (21 giugno 2005), pp. 429-35; U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), Energy Information Administration (EIA), “World Crude Oil Prices”, e “U.S. All Grades All Formulations Retail Gasoline Prices”, tonto.eia.doe.gov, visionato il 31 luglio 2007.
8. Le perdite dello strato superficiale di suolo delle aree coltivate sono stimate dall’autore; USDA, op. cit. nota 6; FAO, The State of Food and Agriculture 1995 (Roma, 1995), p. 175.
9. Lester R. Brown, Outgrowing the Earth, W.W. Norton & Company, New York 2004, pp. 101-02; Peter H. Gleick et al., The World’s Water 2004-2005, Island Press, Washington, DC,2004, p. 88; U.N. Population Division, op. cit. nota 5; Andrew England, “Saudis to Phase Out Wheat Production”, Financial Times, 10 aprile 2008; John Briscoe, India’s Water Economy: Bracing for a Turbulent Future (New Delhi: World Bank 2005); World Bank, China: Agenda for Water Sector Strategy for North China (Washington, DC: aprile 2001), pp. vii, xi.
10. Shaobing Peng et al., “Rice Yields Decline with Higher Night Temperature from Global Warming”, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 6 giugno 2004, pp. 9.971-75; J. Hansen, NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies, “Global Temperature Anomalies in 0.1 C”, data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata/GLB.Ts.txt, aggiornato ad aprile 2009; “Summary for Policymakers”, in Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge U.K. 2007, p. 13.
11. U.N. Environment Programme, Global Outlook for Ice and Snow, Nairobi 2007; Lester R. Brown, “Melting Mountain Glaciers Will Shrink Grain Harvests in China and India”, Plan B Update (Washington, DC: Earth Policy Institute, 20 marzo 2008); USDA, op. cit. nota 6.
12. W.T. Pfeffer, J.T. Harper, S. O’Neel, “Kinematic Constraints on Glacier Contributions to 21st-Century Sea-Level Rise”, Science, vol. 321, 5 settembre 2008, pp. 1.340-43; James Hansen, “Scientific Reticence and Sea Level Rise”, Environmental Research Letters, vol. 2, 24 maggio 2007; Environmental Change and Forced Scenarios Project, “Preliminary Finds from the EACH-FOR Project on Environmentally Induced Migration”, settembre 2008, p. 16; U.N. Development Programme, Human Development Report 2007/2008, New York 2007, p. 100; World Bank, World Development Report 1999/2000, Oxford University Press, New York, settembre 1999; USDA, op. cit. nota 6; U.N. Population Division, op. cit. nota 5.
13. FAO, FISHSTAT Plus, www.fao.org, aggiornato a febbraio 2009.
14. Wang Tao, Cold and Arid Regions Environmental and Engineering Research Institute (CAREERI), Chinese Academy of Sciences, e-mail all’autore del 4 aprile 2004; Wang Tao, “The Process and Its Control of Sandy Desertification in Northern China”, CAREERI, Chinese Academy of Sciences, seminario sulla desertificazione, Lanzhou, Cina, maggio 2002; “Scientists Meeting in Tunis Called for Priority Activities to Curb Desertification”, UN News Service, 21 giugno 2006.
15. Noel Gollehon e William Quinby, “Irrigation in the American West: Area, Water and Economic Activity”, Water Resources Development, vol. 16, n. 2 (2000), pp. 187-95; Sandra Postel, Last Oasis, W.W. Norton & Company, New York 1997, p. 137; R. Srinivasan, “The Politics of Water”, Info Change Agenda, n. 3, ottobre 2005; Water Strategist, vari numeri, www.waterstrategist.com; “China Politics: Growing Tensions Over Scarce Water”, The Economist, 21 giugno 2004.
16. USDA, op. cit. nota 6; prima del 1960 dati da USDA, in Worldwatch Institute, Signposts 2001, CD-ROM, Washington, DC,2001.
17. USDA, op. cit. nota 6; prima del 1960 dati da USDA, op. cit. nota 16.
18. USDA, op. cit. nota 6; Kenneth G. Cassman et al., “Meeting Cereal Demand While Protecting Natural Resources and Improving Environmental Quality”, Annual Review of Environment and Resources, novembre 2003, pp. 322, 350; Thomas R. Sinclair, “Limits to Crop Yield?”, in American Society of Agronomy, Crop Science Society of America, and Soil Science Society of America, Physiology and Determination of Crop Yield, Madison WI 1994, pp. 509-32.
19. Peter M. Vitousek et al., “Human Appropriation of the Products of Photosynthesis”, BioScience, vol. 36, n. 6 (giugno 1986), pp. 368-73.
20. USDA, op. cit. nota 6; U.N. Population Division, op. cit. nota 5.
21. Financial Times, “In Depth: The Global Food Crisis”, www.ft.com/foodprices, aggiornato al 6 maggio 2008; USDA, op. cit. nota 6.
22. Office of the President, Republic of the Philippines, “RP Assured of 1.5 Million Metric Tons of Rice Supply from Vietnam Annually”, comunicato stampa (Manila: 26 marzo 2008); “Yemen to Seek Australian Food Cooperation”, WorldGrain.com, 19 maggio 2008; “Indonesia Set to Become Major Rice Exporter Next Year”, WorldGrain.com, 1 giugno 2008; “Bahrain to Own Rice Farms in Thailand”, TradeArabia, online business newswire, 30 maggio 2008; Javier Blas, “Nations Make Secret Deals Over Grain”, Financial Times, 10 aprile 2008; Maria Kolesnikova e Alaa Shahine, “Russia, Egypt Agree on Wheat Deals to Boost Shipments”, Bloomberg, 23 giugno 2009.
23. GRAIN, Seized! The 2008 Land Grab for Food and Financial Security, Barcellona, ottobre 2008; USDA, op. cit. nota 6; “Libya Agrees Deal to Grow Wheat in Ukraine”, Reuters, 27 maggio 2009.
24. Joachim von Braun e Ruth Meinzen-Dick, “Land Grabbing” by Foreign Investors in Developing Countries, Policy Brief n. 13 (Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute, aprile 2009).
25. GRAIN, op. cit. nota 23; von Braun and Meinzen-Dick, op. cit. nota 24; “Buying Farmland Abroad: Outsourcing’s Third Wave”, The Economist, 21 maggio 2009.
26. GRAIN, op. cit. nota 23; “Land Deals in Africa and Asia: Cornering Foreign Fields”, The Economist, 21 maggio 2009; Javier Blas, “Saudis Get First Taste of Foreign Harvest”, Financial Times, 4 marzo 2009; “Saudi’s Hadco Eyes Sudan, Turkey in Food Security Push”, Reuters, 17 febbraio 2009; U.N. World Food Programme, “Countries”, www.wfp.org/countries, visionato il 4 giugno 2009.
27. “Saudis Invest $1.3 Billion in Indonesian Agriculture”, Reuters, 24 marzo 2009; von Braun and Meinzen-Dick, op. cit. nota 24.
28. Von Braun e Meinzen-Dick, op. cit. nota 24; USDA, op. cit. nota 6; U.N. Population Division, op. cit. nota 5; “China ‘maggio Lease Foreign Fields'”, BBC News, 29 aprile 2008; Gurbir Singh, “China is Buying Farm Lands Abroad to Ensure Food Supplies at Home”, Business World, New Delhi16 maggio 2008; “China Eyes Russian Farmlands in Food Push”, Russia Today, Mosca 11 maggio 2008; GRAIN, op. cit. nota 23, p. 3; “Govt to Lease Land for FDI in Agriculture”, Myanmar Times, 11-17 settembre 2006; U.N. World Food Programme, op. cit. nota 26.
29. USDA, op. cit. nota 6; GRAIN, op. cit. nota 23, pp. 4, 5; “Buying Farmland Abroad”, op. cit. nota 25; Javier Blas, “Hyundai Plants Seoul’s Flag on 50,000ha of Russia”, Financial Times, 15 aprile 2009.
30. Erik Ansink e Arjan Ruijs, “Climate Change and the Stability of Water Allocation Agreements”, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei, Working Paper n. 16.2007, febbraio 2007, pp. 21-23.
31. “Memorandum of Understanding on Construction of Agriculture Technology Transfer Center and Grain Production and Processing Base in the Philippines”, www.newsbreak.com.ph/dmdocuments/special%20coverages/China%20Agri/Fuhua%20MOU.pdf , firmato 15 gennaio 2007; “China: ‘Going Outward’ for Food Security”, Stratfor, 30 aprile 2008; Luzi Ann Javier, “China’s Appetite for Filipino Paddies Breeds Farmer Opposition”, Bloomberg, 21 febbraio 2008; Tom Burgis e Javier Blas, “Madagascar Scraps Daewoo Farm Deal”, Financial Times, 18 marzo 2009; “Zambia’s Opposition Condemns Reported Chinese Biofuels Project”, Earth Times, 2 aprile 2009.
32. GRAIN, op. cit. nota 23, p. 10; “Buying Farmland Abroad”, op. cit. nota 25.
33. Amena Bakr, “Pakistan Offers Farmland to Foreign Investors”, Reuters,
20 aprile 2009.
34. Michiyo Nakamoto, Javier Blas, “G8 Move to Halt ‘Farmland Grabbing'”,
Financial Times, 26 maggio 2009; von Braun and Meinzen-Dick, op. cit. nota 24.
35. USDA, op. cit. nota 6; U.N. Population Division, op. cit. nota 5.
36. “Cereal Offenders”, The Economist, 27 maggio 2008; “Commodities Boom Recalls 70s Surge; Prices Not There Yet”, Dow Jones Newswires, 27 giugno 2008; Fred H. Sanderson, “The Great Food Fumble”, Science, vol. 188, 9 maggio 1975, pp. 503-09; U.S. Department of the Treasury, “Report on Foreign Holdings of U.S. Securities at End-June 2008”, comunicato stampa (Washington, DC: 30 aprile 2009); U.S. Department of the Treasury, “Major Foreign Holders of Treasury Securities”; gli elenchi con i dati attuali e storici: www.treasury.gov/tic, aggiornato al 16 gennaio 2009.
37. James Bandler e Nicholas Varchaver, “How Bernie Did It”, Fortune, vol. 159, n. 10, 11 maggio 2009; “The Madoff Affair: Going Down Quietly”, The Economist, 12 maggio 2009.
38. Angus Maddison, “Statistics on World Population, GDP and Per Capita GDP, 1-2006 AD”, www.ggdc.net/maddison, aggiornato a marzo 2009; Mathis Wackernagel et al., “Tracking the Ecological Overshoot of the Human Economy”, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, vol. 99, n. 14, 9 luglio 2002, pp. 9.266-71; Global Footprint Network, WWF, Zoological Society of London, Living Planet Report 2008 (Gland, Svizzera: WWF, ottobre 2008), p. 2.
39. Stima dell’autore basata sulle cifre citate in precedenza per Cina e India, così come altri paesi come Arabia Saudita e Pakistan dove gli acquiferi si stanno riducendo per lo sfruttamento eccessivo.
40. FAO, The State of World Fisheries and Aquaculture 2008, Roma 2009, p. 7; Ransom A. Myers e Boris Worm, “Rapid Worldwide Depletion of Predatory Fish Communities”, Nature, vol. 432, 15 maggio 2003, pp. 280-83.
41. Paul Hawken, “Commencement Address to the Class of 2009”, discorso tenuto alla University of Portland, Portland OR 3 maggio 2009.
42. Eric Pfanner, “Failure Brings Call for Tougher Standards: Accounting for Enron: Global Ripple Effects”, International Herald Tribune, 17 gennaio 2002.
43. Nicholas Stern, The Stern Review on the Economics of Climate Change, HM Treasury, London 2006.
44. DOE, EIA, “Weekly Retail Gasoline and Diesel Prices”, tonto.eia.doe.gov/dnav/pet/pet_pri_gnd_dcus_nus_w.htm, visionato il 5 giugno 2009.
45. International Center for Technology Assessment (ICTA), The Real Cost of Gasoline: An Analysis of the Hidden External Costs Consumers Pay to Fuel Their Automobiles, Washington, DC,1998; ICTA, Gasoline Cost Externalities Associated with Global Climate Change, Washington, DC,settembre 2004; ICTA, Gasoline Cost Externalities: Security and Protection Services, Washington, DC, gennaio 2005; Terry Tamminen, Lives Per Gallon: The True Cost of Our Oil Addiction, Island Press, Washington, DC, 2006, p. 60, corretta ai prezzi del 2007 con Bureau of Economic Analysis, “Table 3 – Price Indices for Gross Domestic Product and Gross Domestic Purchases”, GDP and Other Major Series, 1929-2007, Washington, DC,agosto 2007; DOE, op. cit. nota 44.
46. Munich Re, Topics Annual Review: Natural Catastrophes 2001, Monaco, Germania 2002, pp. 16-17; valore dei raccolti cinesi di grano e riso da USDA, op. cit. nota 6, aggiornato al 12 luglio 2007, usando i prezzi dell’International Monetary Fund, International Financial Statistics, ifs.apdi.net/imf.
47. “Forestry Cuts Down on Logging”, China Daily, 26 maggio 1998; Erik Eckholm, “China Admits Ecological Sins Played Role in Flood Disaster”, New York Times, 26 agosto 1998.
48. Fund for Peace and Foreign Policy, “The Failed States Index”, Foreign Policy, luglio/agosto 2005, pp. 56-65.
49. Ibid.
50. Lydia Polgreen, “In Congo, Hunger and Disease Erode Democracy”, New York Times, 23 giugno 2006; International Rescue Committee, Mortality in the Democratic Republic of Congo: An Ongoing Crisis, New York gennaio 2008, p. ii; Lydia Polgreen, “Hundreds Killed Near Chad’s Border With Sudan”, New York Times, 14 novembre 2006; “A Failing State: The Himalayan Kingdom Is a Gathering Menace”, The Economist, 4 dicembre 2004.
51. “The Indian Ocean: The Most Dangerous Seas in the World”, The Economist, 17 luglio 2008; U.N. Office on Drugs and Crime, World Drug Report 2009, Vienna giugno 2009, p. 34; Ania Lichtarowica, “Conquering Polio’s Last Frontier”, BBC News, 2 agosto 2007.
52. Neil MacFarquhar, “Haiti’s Woes Are Top Test for Aid Effort”, New York Times, 31 marzo 2009; U.S. Central Intelligence Agency, The World Factbook, www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook, aggiornato al 26 giugno 2009; Madeleine K. Albright and Robin Cook, “The World Needs to Step It Up in Afghanistan”, International Herald Tribune, 5 ottobre 2004; Desmond Butler, “5-Year Hunt Fails to Net Qaeda Suspect in Africa”, New York Times, 14 giugno 2003; Emilio San Pedro, “U.S. Ready to Aid Mexico Drug Fight”, BBC News, 2 marzo 2009.
53. Fund for Peace and Foreign Policy, “The Failed States Index”, Foreign Policy, luglio/agosto, 2005-09.
54. Fund for Peace and Foreign Policy, “The Failed States Index”, Foreign Policy, luglio/agosto 2007, pp. 54-63; tabella 1-1 da Fund for Peace and Foreign Policy, “The Failed States Index”, Foreign Policy, luglio/agosto 2009, pp. 80-93.
55. Fund for Peace and Foreign Policy, op. cit. nota 53.
56. U.N. Population Division, op. cit. nota 5; Fund for Peace and Foreign Policy, luglio/agosto 2009, op. cit. nota 54; Richard Cincotta and Elizabeth Leahy, “Population Age Structure and Its Relation to Civil Conflict: A Graphic Metric”, Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars Environmental Change and Security Program Report, vol. 12 (2006-07), pp. 55-58.
57. Fund for Peace and Foreign Policy, luglio/agosto 2009, op. cit. nota 54.
58. Ibid.; U.N. Population Division op. cit. nota 5.
59. Fund for Peace and Foreign Policy, luglio/agosto 2009, op. cit. nota 54; U.N. Population Division, op. cit. nota 5.
60. Fund for Peace and Foreign Policy, luglio/agosto 2009, op. cit. nota 54; U.N. World Food Programme, op. cit. nota 26.
61. Financial Times, op. cit. nota 21; Carolyn Said, “Nothing Flat about Tortilla Prices: Some in Mexico Cost 60 Percent More, Leading to a Serious Struggle for Low-Income People”, San Francisco Chronicle, 13 gennaio 2007; Adam Morrow, Khaled Moussa al-Omrani, “Egypt: Rising Food Costs Provoke Fights Over Subsidised Bread”, Inter Press Service, 26 marzo 2008; Raphael Minder, John Aglionby, Jung-a Song, “Soaring Soybean Price Stirs Anger Among Poor”, Financial Times, 18 gennaio 2008; Joseph Delva, Jim Loney, “Haiti’s Government Falls after Food Riots”, Reuters, 12 aprile 2008.
62. Keith Bradsher, “High Rice Cost Creating Fears of Asian Unrest”, New York Times, 29 marzo 2008; Kamran Haider, “Pakistani Troops Escort Wheat Trucks to Stop Theft”, Reuters, 13 gennaio 2008; Nadeem Sarwar, “Pakistan’s Poor, Musharraf Reeling Under Wheat Crisis”, Deutsche Presse-Agentur, 14 gennaio 2008; Carlotta Gall, “Hunger and Food Prices Push Afghanistan to Brink”, New York Times, 16 maggio 2008; U.N. World Food Programme, “Almost 6 Million Sudanese Await WFP Support in 2009”, www.wfp.org, 5 marzo 2009.
63. United Nations, “United Nations Peacekeeping Operations”, www.un.org/Depts/dpko/dpko/bnota.htm, visionato l’8 giugno 2009; North Atlantic Treaty Organization, “NATO in Afghanistan”, www.nato.int/issues/Afghanistan/index.html, aggiornato al 27 marzo 2009.
64. U.N. World Food Programme, op. cit. nota 26.
65. Stephanie McCrummen, “In an Eastern Congo Oasis, Blood amid the Greenery”, Washington Post, 22 luglio 2007.
66. U.N. Population Division, op. cit. nota 5.
67. Harold G. Vatter, The US Economy in World War II, Columbia University Press, New York 1985, p. 13; Alan L. Gropman, Mobilizing U.S. Industry in World War II, National Defense University Press, Washington, DC, agosto 1996; Doris Kearns Goodwin, No Ordinary Time – Franklin and Eleanor Roosevelt: The Home Front in World War II, Simon & Schuster, New York 1994, p. 316.
68. U.N. Population Division, World Population Prospects: The 2008 Revision, Extended Dataset, CD-ROM, New York 9 aprile 2009.
69. CalCars, “All About Plug-In Hybrids”, www.calcars.org, visionato il 9 giugno 2009; General Motors, “Imagine: A Daily Commute Without Using a Drop of Gas”, www.chevrolet.com/electriccar, visionato l’8 agosto 2008.
70. Larry Kinney, Lighting Systems in Southwestern Homes: Problems and Opportunities, compilato per DOE, Building America Program con Midwest Research Institute, National Renewable Energy Laboratory Division, Boulder CO, Southwest Energy Efficiency Project, giugno 2005, pp. 4-5; CREE LED Lighting, “Ultra-Efficient Lighting”, www.creelighting.com/efficiency.htm, visionato il 17 aprile 2009.
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72. Se-Kyung Chong, “Anmyeon-do Recreation Forest: A Millennium of Management”, in Patrick B. Durst et al., In Search of Excellence: Exemplary Forest Management in Asia and the Pacific, Asia-Pacific Forestry Commission (Bangkok: FAO Regional Office for Asia and the Pacific, 2005), pp. 251-59; Daniel Hellerstein, “USDA Land Retirement Programs”, in USDA, Agricultural Resources and Environmental Indicators 2006, Washington, DC, luglio 2006; USDA, ERS, Agri-Environmental Policy at the Crossroads: Guideposts on a Changing Landscape, Agricultural Economic Report n. 794, Washington, DC, gennaio 2001; USDA, op. cit. nota 6.
73. Molly O’Meara, Reinventing Cities for People and the Planet, Worldwatch Paper 147, Washington, DC, Worldwatch Institute, giugno 1999, p. 47; City of Amsterdam, “Bike Capital of Europe”, www.toamsterdam.nl, visionato il 2 luglio 2009; Serge Schmemann, “I Love Paris on a Bus, a Bike, a Train and in Anything but a Car”, New York Times, 26 luglio 2007; Transport for London, Central London Congestion Charging: Impacts Monitoring, Londra, varie annualità .