CAPITOLO 2. la pressione demografica: terre coltivabili e risorse idriche

 

1. Lester R. Brown, The Twenty-Ninth Day, W.W. Norton & Company, New York 1978.

2. Superficie coltivata da U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA), Production, Supply and Distribution, www.fas.usda.gov/psdonline, aggiornato al 9 aprile 2009; Le perdite dello strato superficiale di suolo delle aree coltivate sono stimate dall’autore sulla base di Mohan K. Wali et al., “Assessing Terrestrial Ecosystem Sustainability”, Nature & Resources, ottobre-dicembre 1999, pp. 21-33, e su World Resources Institute (WRI), World Resources 2000-01, Washington, DC, 2000.

3. U.N. Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), ResourceSTAT, faostat.fao.org, aggiornato ad aprile 2009; Lester R. Brown, “Melting Mountain Glaciers Will Shrink Grain Harvests in China and India”, Plan B Update (Washington, DC: Earth Policy Institute, 20 marzo 2008).

4. Jacob W. Kijne, Unlocking the Water Potential of Agriculture (Roma: FAO, 2003), p. 26.

5. Lester R. Brown, Outgrowing the Earth, W.W. Norton & Company, New York 2004, pp. 101-02.

6. Walter C. Lowdermilk, Conquest of the Land Through 7,000 Years, USDA Bulletin N. 99 (Washington, DC: USDA, Natural Resources Conservation Service, 1939).

7. Ibid., p. 10.

8. FAO, “FAO/WFP Crop and Food Assessment Mission to Lesotho Special Report”, www.fao.org, visionato il 29 maggio 2002; U.N. Population Division, World Population Prospects: The 2008 Revision Population Database, esa.un.org/unpp, aggiornato all’11 marzo 2009; Michael Grunwald, “Bizarre Weather Ravages Africans’ Crops”, Washington Post, 7 gennaio 2003.

9. USDA, op. cit. nota 2; U.N. World Food Programme (WFP), “Lesotho”, www.wfp.org/countries/lesotho, visionato il 5 maggio 2009.

10. USDA, op. cit. nota 2; FAO, Global Forest Resources Assessment 2005, Roma 2006, p. 193; WFP, “Haiti”, www.wfp.org/countries/haiti, visionato il 5 maggio 2009.

11. U.N. Environment Programme (UNEP), Mongolia: State of the Environment 2002, (Pathumthani, Thailandia: Regional Resource Centre for Asia and the Pacific, 2001), pp. 3-7; U.N. Population Division, op. cit. nota 8; USDA, op. cit. nota 2.

12. FAO, “More People Than Ever are Victims of Hunger”, Roma giugno 2009.

13. National Aeronautics and Space Administration Earth Observatory, “Dust Storm off Western Sahara Coast”, earthobservatory. nasa.gov, visionato il 9 gennaio 2005.

14. Paul Brown, “4x4s Replace the Desert Camel and Whip Up a Worldwide Dust Storm”, Guardian (Londra), 20 agosto 2004.

15. Ibid.

16. Ann Schrader, “Latest Import from China: Haze”, Denver Post, 18 aprile 2001; Brown, op. cit. nota 14.

17. Howard W. French, “China’s Growing Deserts Are Suffocating Korea”, New York Times, 14 aprile 2002.

18. Per il numero di tempeste di polvere in Cina, vedi la tabella 1.1 in Lester R. Brown, Janet Larsen, Bernie Fischlowitz Roberts, The Earth Policy Reader, W.W. Norton & Company, New York 2002, p. 13.

19. U.S. Embassy, “Desert Mergers and Acquisitions”, Beijing Environment, Science, and Technology Update, Beijing 19 luglio 2002, p. 2.

20. Asif Farrukh, Pakistan Grain and Feed Annual Report 2002 (Islamabad, Pakistan: USDA Foreign Agricultural Service, 2003).

21. UNEP, Africa Environment Outlook: Past, Present, and Future Perspectives, Nairobi 2002.

22. Area stimata da Stanley Wood, Kate Sebastian, Sara J. Scherr, Pilot Analysis of Global Ecosystems: Agroecosystems (Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute and WRI, 2000), p. 3; FAO, ProdSTAT, faostat.fao.org, aggiornato a giugno 2009.

23. Numero di pastori da FAO, The State of Food Insecurity in the World 2003, Roma 2003, p. 15; Robin P. White, Siobhan Murray, Mark Rohweder, Pilot Analysis of Global Ecosystems: Grassland Ecosystems, Washington, DC, WRI, 2000; U.N. Population Division, op. cit. nota 8; FAO, op. cit. nota 22; Southern African Development Coordination Conference, SADCC Agriculture: Toward 2000, Roma, FAO, 1984.

24. Government of Nigeria, Combating Desertification and Mitigating the Effects of Drought in Nigeria, Revised National Report on the Implementation of the United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification, Nigeria aprile 2002; U.N. Population Division, op. cit. nota 8; FAO, op. cit. nota 22.

25. U.N. Population Division, op. cit. nota 8; FAO, op. cit. nota 22; Iranian News Agency, “Official Warns of Impending Desertification Catastrophe in Southeast Iran”, BBC International Reports, 29 settembre 2002.

26. UNEP, Afghanistan: Post-Conflict Environmental Assessment, Ginevra 2003, p. 52.

27. FAO, op. cit. nota 22.

28. Wang Tao et al., “A Study on Spatial-temporal Changes of Sandy Desertified Land During Last 5 Decades in North China”, Acta Geographica Sinica, vol. 59 (2004), pp. 203-12.

29. Wang Tao, Cold and Arid Regions Environmental and Engineering Research Institute (CAREERI), Chinese Academy of Sciences, e-mail all’autore, 4 aprile 2004; Wang Tao, “The Process and Its Control of Sandy Desertification in Northern China”, CAREERI, Chinese Academy of Sciences, seminario sulla desertificazione, Lanzhou, Cina, maggio 2002.

30. FAO, The State of Food and Agriculture 1995, Roma 1995, p. 175; Rosamond Naylor et al., “Losing the Links between Livestock and Land”, Science, vol. 310 (9 dicembre 2005), pp. 1.621-22.

31. “The Great North American Dust Bowl: A Cautionary Tale”, in Secretariat of the U.N. Convention to Combat Desertification, Global Alarm: Dust and Sandstorms from the World’s Drylands, Bangkok 2002, pp. 77-121; John Steinbeck, The Grapes of Wrath, Viking Penguin Inc., New York 1939.

32. FAO, op. cit. nota 30, p. 175; David Christian, Imperial and Soviet Russia: Power, Privilege, and the Challenge of Modernity, Palgrave Macmillan, New York 1997, p. 366; USDA, op. cit. nota 2; France from USDA, Foreign Agricultural Service, World Agricultural Production, Washington, DC, aprile 2009, p. 7.

33. David Kaimowitz et al., Hamburger Connection Fuels Amazon Destruction, (Jakarta, Indonesia: Center for International Forestry Research, 2004); Carlos R. Spehar, “Production Systems in the Savannahs of Brazil: Key Factors to Sustainability”, in Rattan Lal, ed., Soil Quality and Agricultural Sustainability (Chelsea, MI: Ann Arbor Press, 1998), pp. 301-18; Daniel Nepstad, “Climate Change and the Forest”, Tomorrow’s Amazonia: Using and Abusing the World’s Last Great Forests (Washington, DC: The American Prospect, settembre 2007); Geoffrey Lean, “A Disaster to Take Everyone’s Breath Away”, Independent (London), 24 luglio 2006.

34. Craig S. Smith, “Saudis Worry as They Waste Their Scarce Water”, New York Times, 26 gennaio 2003.

35. Andrew England, “Saudis to Phase Out Wheat Production”, Financial Times, 10 aprile 2008; USDA, op. cit. nota 2; U.N. Population Division, op. cit. nota 8.

36. Michael Ma, “Northern Cities Sinking as Water Table Falls”, South China Morning Post, 11 agosto 2001; Smith, op. cit. nota 34; John Opie, Ogallala: Water for a Dry Land, 2nd ed. (Lincoln, NB: University of Nebraska Press, 2000), p. 3.

37. U.N. Population Division, op. cit. nota 8; USDA, op. cit. nota 2; Christopher Ward, “Yemen’s Water Crisis”, basato su una lezione del settembre 2000 presso il British Yemeni Society, luglio 2001; Fund for Peace and Foreign Policy, “The Failed States Index”, Foreign Policy, luglio/agosto 2009, pp. 80-93.

38. Ma, op. cit. nota 36; percentuale del raccolto cinese proveniente dalla Pianura della Cina settentrionale stimata da Hong Yang and Alexander Zehnder, “China’s Regional Water Scarcity and Implications for Grain Supply and Trade”, Environment and Planning A, vol. 33 (2001), e dal National Bureau of Statistics of China, China Statistical Yearbook 2008, www.stats.gov.cn/tjsj/ndsj/2008/indexeh.htm, visionato 9 giugno 2009.

39. Ma, op. cit. nota 36.

40. World Bank, China: Agenda for Water Sector Strategy for North China (Washington, DC: aprile 2001), pp. vii, xi; U.N. Population Division, op. cit. nota 8; USDA, op. cit. nota 2.

41. Numero degli agricoltori e investimenti nei pozzi da Peter H. Gleick et al., The World’s Water 2006-2007, Island Press, Washington, DC, 2006, p. 148; numero dei pozzi e ratei di consumo degli acquiferi da Fred Pearce, “Asian Farmers Sucking the Continent Dry”, New Scientist, 28 agosto 2004.

42. Pearce, op. cit. nota 41.

43. USDA, op. cit. nota 2; John Briscoe, India’s Water Economy: Bracing for a Turbulent Future (New Delhi: World Bank, 2005); U.N. Population Division, op. cit. nota 8.

44. USDA, Agricultural Resources and Environmental Indicators 2000 (Washington, DC: febbraio 2000), capitolo 2.1, p. 6; percentuale irrigata calcolata da FAO, op. cit. nota 3; raccolti da USDA, op. cit. nota 2; Sandra Postel, Pillar of Sand, W.W. Norton & Company, New York 1999), p. 77.

45. U.N. Population Division, op. cit. nota 8; abbassamento delle falde idriche da “Pakistan: Focus on Water Crisis”, U.N. Integrated Regional Information Networks News, 17 maggio 2002.

46. “Pakistan: Focus on Water Crisis”, op. cit. nota 45; Sardar Riaz A. Khan, “Declining Land Resource Base”, Dawn (Pakistan), 27 settembre 2004.

47. Chenaran Agricultural Center, Ministero dell’agricoltura, secondo Hamid Taravati, Iran, e-mail all’autore, 25 giugno 2002; USDA, op. cit. nota 2.

48. Deborah Camiel, “Israel, Palestinian Water Resources Down the Drain”, Reuters, 12 luglio 2000; USDA, op. cit. nota 2; “Palestinian Water Crisis Deepens”, BBC News, 20 aprile 2009.

49. U.N. Population Division, op. cit. nota 8; Tushaar Shah et al., The Global Groundwater Situation: Overview of Opportunities and Challenges (Colombo, Sri Lanka: International Water Management Institute, 2000); Karin Kemper, “Groundwater Management in Mexico: Legal and Institutional Issues”, in Salman M.A. Salman, ed., Groundwater: Legal and Policy Perspectives, Proceedings of a World Bank Seminar (Washington, DC: World Bank, 1999), p. 117; U.N. Development Programme, Human Development Report 2006 (Gordonsville, VA: Palgrave Macmillan, 2006), p. 146.

50. Quantità  di acqua necessaria per produrre l’acciaio da Sandra Postel, Last Oasis, W.W. Norton & Company, New York 1997, pp. 38-39; 1.000 tonnellate di acqua per una tonnellata di grano da FAO, Yield Response to Water, Roma 1979.

51. Noel Gollehon, William Quinby, “Irrigation in the American West: Area, Water and Economic Activity”, Water Resources Development, vol. 16, n. 2 (2000), pp. 187-95; Postel, op. cit. nota 50, p. 137; Pramit Mitra, “Running on Empty: India’s Water Crisis Could Threaten Prosperity”, South Asia Monitor, n. 103 (Washington, DC: Center for Strategic and International Studies, 8 febbraio 2007); R. Srinivasan, “The Politics of Water”, Info Change Agenda, n. 3, ottobre 2005; U.N. Population Division, World Urbanization Prospects: The 2007 Revision Population Database, esa.un.org/unup, aggiornato 2008.

52. Srinivasan, op. cit. nota 51; Pearce, op. cit. nota 41.

53. “China Politics: Growing Tensions Over Scarce Water”, The Economist, 21 giugno 2004.

54. Gollehon, Quinby, op. cit. nota 51; Water Strategist, vari numeri, www.waterstrategist.com.

55. Joey Bunch, “Water Projects Forecast to Fall Short of Needs: Study Predicts 10% Deficit in State”, Denver Post, 22 luglio 2004.

56. Dean Murphy, “Pact in West Will Send Farms’ Water to Cities”, New York Times, 17 ottobre 2003; Tim Molloy, “California Water District Approves Plan to Pay Farmers for Irrigation Water”, Associated Press, 13 maggio 2004; USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), “Table 10. Irrigation 2002 and 1997”, 2002 Census of Agriculture, vol. 1 (Washington, DC: giugno 2004), pp. 318-26; USDA, NASS, “Table 10. Irrigation: 2007 and 2002”, 2007 Census of Agriculture, vol. 1 (Washington, DC: febbraio 2009), pp. 372-80.

57. FAO, op. cit. nota 50.

58. USDA, Foreign Agricultural Service, Grain: World Markets and Trade (Washington, DC: varie annualità ); USDA, op. cit. nota 2.

59. Portata annuale del Nilo da Postel, op. cit. nota 44, p. 71; importazioni da USDA, op. cit. nota 2; calcolo basato sulle 1.000 tonnellate di acqua necessarie per produrre una tonnellata di frumento da FAO, op. cit. nota 50.

60. U.N. Population Division, op. cit. nota 8; USDA, op. cit. nota 2.

61. USDA, Production, Supply and Distribution Country Reports (Washington, DC: ottobre 1990); USDA, op. cit. nota 2; U.N. Population Division, op. cit. nota 8.

62. “Time for Action on Sudan” (editoriale), New York Times, 18 giugno 2004; “A First Step to Save Darfur” (editoriale), New York Times, 3 agosto 2007; “Hearings to Identify Causes of Conflict Kick Off in Darfur, Reports UNAU Mission”, UN News Service, 22 giugno 2009.

63. U.N. Population Division, op. cit. nota 8; FAO, op. cit. nota 22.

64. U.N. Population Division, op. cit. nota 8; Government of Nigeria, Combating Desertification and Mitigating the Effects of Drought in Nigeria, National Report on the Implementation of the United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification (Nigeria: novembre1999); Somini Sengupta, “Where the Land is a Tinderbox, the Killing Is a Frenzy”, New York Times, 16 giugno 2004.

65. Sengupta, op. cit. nota 64.

66. Ibid.

67. James Gasana, “Remember Rwanda?” World Watch, settembre/ottobre 2002, pp. 24-32.

68. Ibid.

69. U.S. Census Bureau, Population Division, International Programs Center, International Database, www.census.gov/ipc/www/idb, aggiornato 15 dicembre 2008; Gasana, op. cit. nota 67.

70. Gasana, op. cit. nota 67; Emily Wax, “At the Heart of Rwanda’s Horror: General’s History Offers Clues to the Roots of Genocide”, Washington Post, 21 settembre 2002.

71. U.N. Population Division, op. cit. nota 8; Gasana, op. cit. nota 67.

72. U.N. Population Division, op. cit. nota 8; Postel, op. cit. nota 44, pp. 141-49.

73. U.N. Population Division, op. cit. nota 8; Postel, op. cit. nota 44, pp. 141-49.

74. U.N. Population Division, op. cit. nota 8; Postel, op. cit. nota 44, pp. 141-49; Southeastern Anatolia Project Regional Development Administration, Latest Situation on Southeastern Anatolia Project (Ankara: Republic of Turkey, Prime Ministry, giugno 2006), pp. 3-5.

75. O’Hara citato in Michael Wines, “Grand Soviet Scheme for Sharing Water in Central Asia is Foundering”, New York Times, 9 dicembre 2002; Ivan Stanchin and Zvi Lerman, Water in Turkmenistan (Rehovot, Israel: Hebrew University of Jerusalem, 2007), p. 1.

76. F.O. Licht, “Too Much Too Soon? World Ethanol Production to Break Another Record in 2005”, World Ethanol and Biofuels Report, vol. 3, no. 20 (21 giugno 2005), pp. 429-35; U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), “World Crude Oil Prices”, and “U.S. All Grades All Formulations Retail Gasoline Prices”, tonto.eia.doe.gov, visionato il 31 luglio 2007; USDA, Production, Supply and Distribution, www.fas.usda. gov/psdonline, aggiornato al 12 maggio 2009; USDA, Feedgrains Database, www.ers.usda.gov/Data/feedgrains, aggiornato al 19 maggio 2009.

77. F.O. Licht, “World Fuel Ethanol Production”, World Ethanol and Biofuels Report, vol. 7, no. 18 (26 maggio 2009), p. 365; “Biodiesel: World Production, by Country”, elenco in F.O. Licht, World Ethanol and Biofuels Report, vol. 7, n. 14 (26 marzo 2009), p. 288; “EU Ministers Agree Biofuel Target”, BBC News, 15 febbraio 2007.

78. USDA, Production, Supply and Distribution, op. cit. nota 76; cereali per l’etanolo da USDA, Feedgrains Database, op. cit. nota 76; le serie storiche dei prezzi di grano, frumento e soia sono dati del Chicago Board of Trade Futures Data ricavati da TFC Commodity Charts, “Grain & Oilseed Commodities Futures”, futures.tradingcharts.com/grains_oilseeds.html, visionato il 16 gennaio 2009; i prezzi correnti di grano, frumento e soia sono dati del Chicago Board of Trade Futures Data ricavati da CME Group, “Commodity Products”, dati vari, www.cmegroup.com; prezzi del riso da Nathan Childs e Katherine Baldwin, Rice Outlook (Washington, DC: USDA, Economic Research Service, 11 giugno 2009), p. 26; Donald Mitchell, A Note on Rising Food Prices, Policy Research Working Paper 4682 (Washington, DC: World Bank Development Prospects Group, luglio 2008), pp. 16-17.

79. Lester R. Brown, “Distillery Demand for Grain to Fuel Cars Vastly Understated: World maggio be Facing Highest Grain Prices in History”, Eco-Economy Update (Washington, DC: Earth Policy Institute, 4 gennaio 2007); la quantità  di cereali necessari per produrre il bioetanolo è calcolata dall’autore su Keith Collins, capo economista USDA, Statement before the U.S. Senate Committee on Environment and Public Works, 6 settembre 2006, p. 8; contenuto energetico del bioetanolo da Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL), “Bioenergy Conversion Factors”, bioenergy.ornl.gov/papers/misc/energy_conv.html, visionato il 3 agosto 2007; consumi americani di carburante da “Table 10. Energy Consumption by Sector and Source: Total United States”, in DOE, Energy Information Administration, “Supplemental Tables to the Annual Energy Outlook 2009”, www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo/supplement/supref.html, aggiornato a marzo 2009; USDA, op. cit. nota 2.

80. C. Ford Runge, Benjamin Senauer, “How Biofuels Could Starve the Poor”, Foreign Affairs, maggio/giugno 2007.

81. Celia W. Dugger, “As Prices Soar, U.S. Food Aid Buys Less”, New York Times, 29 settembre 2007; WFP, “Our Work: Operations List”, www.wfp.org/operations, visionato il 9 giugno 2009; Edith M. Lederer, “U.N.: Hunger Kills 18,000 Kids Each Day”, Associated Press, 17 febbraio 2007.

82. Ward’s Automotive Group, World Motor Vehicle Data 2008 (Southfield, MI: 2008), pp. 239-42; calcoli sul reddito da “Gross National Income Per Capita 2007, Atlas Method and PPP”, elenchi in World Bank, “Data – Quick Reference Tables”, siteresources.worldbank.org, aggiornato al 24 aprile 2009, e in U.N. Population Division, op. cit. nota 8.

83. Patrick Barta, “Jatropha Plant Gains Steam in Global Race for Biofuels”, Wall Street Journal, 24 agosto 2007; “Shell Boosts Stake in Iogen Cellulosic Ethanol”, Reuters, 15 luglio 2008; FAO, State of Food and Agriculture 2008, Roma 2008, p. 47.

84. The White House, “Remarks by the President on National Fuel Efficiency Standards”, trascrizione (Washington, DC: Office of the Press Secretary, 19 maggio 2009); John M. Broder, “Obama to Toughen Rules on Emissions and Mileage”, New York Times, 19 maggio 2009; la quantità  di cereali necessari per produrre il bioetanolo è calcolata dall’autore su Collins, op. cit. nota 79, p. 8; contenuto energetico del bioetanolo rispetto alla benzina da ORNL, op. cit. nota 79; consumi di carburante statunitensi da “Table 10. Energy Consumption by Sector and Source: Total United States”, op. cit. nota 79; USDA, op. cit. nota 2; CalCars, “All About Plug-In Hybrids”, www.calcars.org, visionato 9 giugno 2009.

85. USDA, op. cit. nota 2; F.O. Licht, “World Fuel Ethanol Production”, op. cit. nota 77, p. 365.

86. “Scientists Meeting in Tunis Called for Priority Activities to Curb Desertification”, UN News Service, 21 giugno 2006.

87. Alan Cowell, “Migrants Found off Italy Boat Piled with Dead”, International Herald Tribune, 21 ottobre 2003.

88. Ibid.

89. Roberta Russo, “UNHCR Steps up Efforts to Stem Gulf of Aden Crossings As Numbers Mount”, News Stories (Ginevra: U.N. High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR), 22 maggio 2009); Hélène Caux, William Spindler, “Dozens Dead or Missing in Gulf of Aden; Boat People Figures Rise”, News Stories (Ginevra: UNHCR, 4 novembre 2008).

90. Miranda Leitsinger, “African Migrants Die an Ocean Away”, Washington Post, 2 giugno 2006; Mar Roman, “A New Record for Africans Risking Boat Route to Europe”, Washington Post, 4 settembre 2006.

91. Ginger Thompson, “Mexico Worries About Its Own Southern Border”, New York Times, 18 giugno 2006; Instituto Nacional de Migracià³n, Estadà­sticas Migratorias, www.inami.gob.mx, aggiornato al 30 aprile 2009.

92. “Mexico’s Immigration Problem: The Kamikazes of Poverty”, The Economist, 31 gennaio 2004.

93. Frank Bruni, “Off Sicily, Tide of Bodies Roils Immigrant Debate”, New York Times, 23 settembre 2002; Flora Botsford, “Spain Recovers Drowned Migrants”, BBC News, 25 aprile 2002; “Boat Sinks Off Coast of Turkey: One Survivor and 7 Bodies Found”, Agence France-Presse, 22 dicembre 2003; Mary Jordan, Kevin Sullivan, “Trade Brings Riches, But Not to Mexico’s Poor”, Washington Post, 22 marzo 2003; Robert McLeman, Barry Smit, “Climate Change, Migration and Security”, Commentary N. 86 (Ottawa: Canadian Security Intelligence Service, 2 marzo 2004); numero di persone che abbandonano le aree rurali da FAO, PopSTAT, faostat.fao.org/site/550/default.aspx, aggiornato a febbraio 2009; Coalicià³n de Derechos Humanos, “Arizona Recovered Bodies”, www.derechoshumanosaz.net, aggiornato al 15 giugno 2009.

94. Numero di villaggi abbandonati in India da Shah et al., op. cit. nota 49; U.N. Population Division, op. cit. nota 8.

95. Wang, e-mail all’autore, op. cit. nota 29; Wang, “The Process and Its Control of Sandy Desertification in Northern China”, op. cit. nota 29.

96. Souhail Karam, “Drought-Hit North Africa Seen Hunting for Grains”, Reuters, 15 luglio 2005; African Development Bank and Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, African Economic Outlook 2007 (Tunisi e Parigi: 2007), p. 386.

97. Iranian News Agency, op. cit. nota 25; Government of Nigeria, op. cit. nota 64.

98. Brasile e Messico da Heitor Matallo, “General Approach to the Costs of Desertification”, presentazione all'”International Workshop on the Cost of Inaction and Opportunities for Investment in Arid, Semi-Arid and Dry Sub-Humid Areas”, Roma 4-5 dicembre 2006; vedi anche tabella 5.2 in Brown, op. cit. nota 5, pp. 86-87.

99. Gordon McGranahan, Deborah Balk, Bridget Anderson, “The Rising Tide: Assessing the Risks of Climate Change and Human Settlements in Low Elevation Coastal Zones”, Environment and Urbanization, vol. 18, n. 1 (aprile 2007), pp. 17-37; International Institute for Environment and Development (IIED), “Climate Change: Study Maps Those at Greatest Risk from Cyclones and Rising Seas”, comunicato stampa (Londra: 28 marzo 2007).